Topic: Olympic Quotas by NOC

[Shaun Le Conte]

The IWF has stated that the doping tests have been completed and have listed the Olympic quotas per NOC. Their count does not include the wild cards for individual qualification. The word quota is important because it means that the spaces are reserved but not necessarily claimed.

http://www.iwf.net/iwf/news_media/latest_news/latest_news.php

2008.06.16.2:01:06
BEIJING 2008
OLYMPIC QUALIFICATION
MEN
2006+2007 WC
1 RUS 6
2 BLR 6
3 CUB 6
4 BUL 6
5 POL 6
6 COL 6
7 KOR 5
8 UKR 5
9 ARM 5
10 MDA 5
11 GRE 5
12 KAZ 5
13 AZE 5
14 GER 4
15 EGY 4
16 VEN 4
17 TUR 4
18 PRK 4
19 ROU 4
20 INA 4
21 THA 3
22 IRI 3
23 FRA 3
24 GEO 3
25 JPN 3
26 ITA 3
27 TPE 3
120

ASIA
1 UZB 2
2 TKM 2
3 KGZ 1
4 IRQ 1
5 KSA 1
7

EUROPE
1 ALB 2
2 SVK 2
3 HUN 1
4 LTU 1
5 ESP 1
7

OCEANIA
1 NZL 2
2 AUS 1
3 NRU 1
4

PANAMERICA
1 USA 2
2 CAN 2
3 BRA 1
4 ARG 1
5 ECU 1
7

AFRICA
1 NGR 2
2 CMR 1
3 TUN 1
4 RSA 1
5

HOST NATION
1 CHN 6


2008.06.16.2:01:06
BEIJING 2008
OLYMPIC QUALIFICATION
WOMEN
2006+2007 WC
1 RUS 4
2 THA 4
3 KOR 4
4 UKR 4
5 COL 4
6 POL 4
7 BLR 4
8 USA 4
9 KAZ 4
10 JPN 3
11 VEN 3
12 GRE 3
13 PRK 3
14 CAN 3
15 BUL 2
16 MEX 2
17 TPE 2
57

ASIA
1 INA 1
2 VIE 1
3 MGL 1
4 IND 1
4

EUROPE
1 TUR 2
2 GER 1
3 FRA 1
4

OCEANIA
1 AUS 1
2 PNG 1
3 SAM 1
3

PANAMERICA
1 ECU 1
2 PUR 1
3 DOM 1
4 ESA 1
4

AFRICA
1 NGR 1
2 EGY 1
3 TUN 1
3

HOST NATION
1 CHN 4

[Chris Ⓐ LeRoux]

Pretty striking to compare the number of positives in the last 3-4 years from these countries with the number of slots earned. I didn't do a careful analysis, associated men and women's positives with mens slots, there could be mistakes, and the doping positives list are not complete. But clearly doping pays off very well in slots and if we stripped slots from busted countries, we would likely have full teams from those that didn't, using the same number of slots. Of course, this would clearly motivate countries to reduce their positives:

http://www.iwf.net/iwf/sport_org/anti_doping_info/suspent_comp.php

Russia- 7 positives, 6 slots!
Blr- 6 positives, 6 slots
Bul- 3 positives, 6 slots
Pol- 1 positive, 6 slots
Col- 1 positive, 6 slots
Ukr- 3 positives, 5 slots
Arm- 2 positives, 5 slots
MDA-4 positives, 5 slots
Gre- 12 positives!, 5 slots!
Egy- 4 positives, 4 slots
Ven- 2 positives, 4 slots
Tur- 5 positives, 4 slots
Prk- 1 positive, 4 slots
Tha- 3 positives, 3 slots
Kaz- 8 positives, 5 slots!
Aze- 2 positives, 5 slots
Iri- 13 positives, 3 slots!
Tpe- 3 positives, 3 slots
Uzb- 3 positives, 2 slots
Kgz- 3 positives, 1 slot
Irq- 3 positives, 1 slot
Alb- 4 positives, 2 slots
Svk- 2 positives, 2 slots
Hun- 3 positives, 1 slot
Ltu- 2 positives, 1 slot
Aus- 2 positives, 1 slot
USA- 0 positives, 2 slots
Canada- 0 positives, 2 slots
Arg- 4 positives, 1 slot
Ecu- 3 positives, 1 slot
Ngr- 4 positives, 2 slots
Tun- 3 positives, 1 slot
China-1 positive, 6 slots

[Chris Ⓐ LeRoux]

I think I will actually go ahead and run a detailed analysis of the data when it is all complete to determine the exact correlation between number of positives and number of slots. I am thinking it will be very high. Then, I will publish the data with an editorial to demonstrate that the system is in effect a system to screen out countries that don't cheat. Anyone want to co-author with me?

[Shaun Le Conte]

I would join you in this but I am supposed to be packing all week, even as I type this I am being told to get busy.

[Brooke Burkhalter]

I think I will actually go ahead and run a detailed analysis of the data when it is all complete to determine the exact correlation between number of positives and number of slots. I am thinking it will be very high. Then, I will publish the data with an editorial to demonstrate that the system is in effect a system to screen out countries that don't cheat. Anyone want to co-author with me?

Wish I could help co-author. Even without the detailed analysis you can look and see a definite correlation minus a few outliers.

IMO positives should directly correlate to losing slots regardless of the countries ability to seed "clean" lifters. Like Greece, who should get zero regardless of fines paid. It would make each country control their lifters.

[Chris Ⓐ LeRoux]

I would join you in this but I am supposed to be packing all week, even as I type this I am being told to get busy.

Good luck with the packing! Maybe you will have time after all as I am not going to do it until all the data is in. The 2008 positives up through the end of the Olympics needs to be included (imagine if Greece, Iran, Russia, etc gets more positives in the lead-up to the Games or even in them!), and the slots aren't final (wildcards not included). Also, I was told there was a lawsuit (or more than one) against the IWF regarding some of these doping issues, so maybe if there really are it will affect the final standings a little. In any case, I think the time to put this together is right after the Olympics. Maybe we could even force change in the process if we embarrass the IWF/WADA/OC enough. At the very least, I would like an investigation to see exactly where all these doping "fines" are going. I seriously doubt some of it isn't being absorbed for private interests.

[Chris Ⓐ LeRoux]

Actually, in retrospect, it would seem to make sense to publish during the Olympics itself, when we can hopefully capture more press attention. It turns out that I may be doing the commentating for weightlifting, in an online format, for the company covering the Games. Perhaps this will provide a good opportunity to get interest from some press. Of course, we could also seek to publish in newspapers, peer-reviewed journals, the USAW magazine, etc. Then, if there are more positives in the Olympics itself, does anyone doubt there will be some?, we can just update the document with the additional data. I would welcome help from anyone interested, whether it be research, running stats, writing, editing, etc.

[Andy Dick]

Well Chris,

I will have about 2 hours a day more of free time for the next 4 weeks if we are going to do any work on it around now.  Otherwise once mid-july hits I dont know how well I will be able to concentrate because I will be extremely hungry to train finally at that point.